Action on Armed Violence (AOAV) has been cited by BBC Verify in a major analysis examining the human cost of the recent US-Israeli war on Iran and the wider regional conflict that engulfed much of the Middle East.
The BBC investigation, published as a ceasefire agreement was announced, highlighted the immense difficulties involved in establishing an accurate death toll from a conflict that has stretched across multiple countries and involved state militaries, proxy forces and civilian populations.
According to figures cited by the BBC, more than 7,300 people have been reported killed in Iran and Lebanon since the conflict began on 28 February. However, analysts and humanitarian organisations have warned that the true number is likely to be significantly higher.
Speaking to BBC Verify, AOAV Executive Director Dr Iain Overton said that the regional nature of the conflict has made casualty recording exceptionally challenging.
“The conflict being fought across multiple countries means casualty figures are often incomplete, delayed or impossible to independently verify,” Dr Overton told the BBC.
The BBC report documented how internet shutdowns, media restrictions, damaged infrastructure and political sensitivities have all hindered efforts to record civilian harm accurately. In Iran, independent monitors have argued that official figures almost certainly undercount fatalities, while in Lebanon disputes continue over the proportion of civilian and combatant deaths.
The investigation also detailed reports of civilian casualties from strikes on schools, sports facilities and residential areas, alongside deaths among military personnel, humanitarian workers and United Nations peacekeepers. Casualties were also recorded across Gulf states affected by missile attacks and military operations linked to the wider conflict.
Dr Overton noted that such challenges are not unique to this war. Conflicts characterised by fragmented battlefields, restricted access and competing political narratives frequently produce casualty records that remain contested long after hostilities end.
“Access restrictions, damaged infrastructure and political sensitivities” have limited reporting in several affected countries, he said. Drawing on lessons from previous wars in Iraq and Syria, Dr Overton warned that the final toll may remain uncertain for years.
“Experience from conflicts in Iraq, Syria and elsewhere suggests that the final death toll will likely remain contested and could prove substantially higher than the numbers currently available,” he told BBC Verify.
AOAV has long highlighted the importance of rigorous casualty recording in armed conflicts. Reliable data is essential not only for understanding the humanitarian consequences of war, but also for ensuring accountability, informing policy responses and supporting future recovery and reconciliation efforts.
As the region moves into an uncertain post-conflict period, establishing the true scale of civilian harm will remain one of the most important and difficult tasks facing investigators, journalists and humanitarian organisations alike. AOAV’s explosive violence monitoring forms part of that process.
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