Explosive Violence in Sudan in 2023

On April 15, growing tensions between General Abdel-Fattah Burhan, de-facto ruler of Sudan and Commander-in-Chief of the Sudanese military, and his then-ally, General Mohammed Hamdan Dagalo, leader of the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF), erupted into a full-scale civil war. While initially focused on the streets of Khartoum, the conflict has spread across the country, bringing with it mass displacement and a devastating humanitarian crisis.

The conflict’s impact is starkly visible: AOAV recorded 2,627 civilians killed and injured (1,226 fatalities) across 139 incidents of explosive violence in Sudan last year – an 8,657% increase in civilian casualties compared to 30 recorded in 2022, and a 4,533% increase in incidents, up from three. Over the past decade, AOAV recorded an average of 42 civilian casualties every year in Sudan.

Among the civilian casualties, at least 70 were reported as children, 34 as women, and 25 as men.

98% (136) of incidents occurred in locations reported as populated, as did 99.5% (2,614) of civilian casualties. The worst impacted locations were urban residential areas, which witnessed 51% (1,331) of civilian casualties and 62% (86) of incidents. Other impacted locations were markets (630 civilian casualties), multiple urban areas (241), and police stations (231). The 15 recorded attacks on markets were the most injurious, however, with an average of 42 civilians harmed per incident, and 20.9 civilians killed.

The majority of incidents, 60% (84), and the majority of civilian casualties, 52% (1,355), were attributed to unknown actors. However, 34% (886) of civilian harm was reportedly caused by the Sudanese Armed Forces (551 killed), and 15% (386) by the RSF (163 killed). In 2022, all 30 civilian casualties were caused by unknown non-state actors.

Ground-launched weapons caused 63% (1,655) of civilian casualties across 88 incidents (589 killed), and air-launched weapons caused 34% (898) across 40 incidents (567 killed). Air strikes were consequently much more injurious to civilians in Sudan last year, harming an average of 22.5 civilians per attack, and killing, on average, 14.2 civilians per air strike.

As well as the immense increase in civilian harm, the ongoing civil war has made itself felt in the spread of explosive violence across the country. Where AOAV recorded three states impacted by explosive weapons use in Sudan in 2022, last year incidents of explosive violence were recorded in 10 states, the worst affected being Khartoum (1,642 civilian casualties), South Darfur (479), and North Darfur (199).

Attempts to resolve the conflict via diplomatic routes have been characterised by suspensions, delays, and lack of will from both parties to the conflict. With neither side having gained the military upper hand so far, it seems likely the conflict will drag on.