The onset of the Syrian Civil War in 2011 coincided with the first full year of AOAV’s Explosive Violence Monitor. As a result, AOAV has regularly cited Syria as the country worst-affected by explosive violence over the past decade. In 2012, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018 and 2019, the country saw higher numbers of civilian deaths and injuries caused by explosives than anywhere else in the world; in 2013, 2014 and 2020, it was second.

The period 2011-2016 was marked by a growing ‘sophistication’ in the military equipment deployed in Syria, and thus the nature and impact of explosive violence. The extension of the US-led mission against ISIS into Syria in September 2014, alongside the commencement of Russian involvement in 2015, led to a large increase in the level of civilian harm caused by air-launched weapons. This can be seen in the 75% rise in civilian casualties from airstrikes recorded by AOAV between 2014 and 2015.

However, the enormous toll explosive violence has inflicted on Syria’s population became more apparent following the drastic levels of civilian harm recorded in 2016 and 2017. In these two years, AOAV recorded a total of 13,313 and 13,062 civilian casualties respectively – a figure greater than the combined civilian casualties of the next four worst-affected states in that timeframe. This was predominantly the result of the sieges of key cities such as Aleppo and Deir Ezzor, and the June 2017 campaign by the US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) to capture the city of Raqqa, which had stood as the de facto capital of the so-called Islamic State. This operation brought with it a large increase in aerial bombing raids carried out by the US-led coalition, resulting in what Paulo Pinheiro, the chairman of the United Nations Commission of Inquiry on Syria, called a ‘staggering loss of civilian life’.

Although year-on-year casualties fell in both 2018 and 2019, Syria remained the most dangerous country to be a civilian, according to AOAV. Despite a fall of 27% from 2017, the 2018 figure of 9,588 civilian casualties was still more than double that of Afghanistan (4,268) – the second most conflict-affected state according to the 2018 Explosive Violence Monitor. 2018’s high casualties were, in part, the result of the ruthless bombardment of Eastern Ghouta by Russian and Syrian forces early in the year. As a result, 44% of all civilian casualties in that year were recorded in the Rif Dimashq region.

AOAV’s 2019 Explosive Violence Monitor recorded a 24% decrease in civilian casualties from 2018 and a 44% decrease from 2017. However, when compared with other countries, the picture remained bleak. With 7,256 civilian casualties recorded over the year, Syria was still by far the most dangerous place to be a civilian, recording more deaths and injuries from explosive violence than Afghanistan, Yemen and Somalia (the next three worst affected countries) combined. The 2019 data also reflected the relentless toll of the conflict on civilians, who made up 83% of all casualties from explosive violence in the country. This is especially pertinent when we consider that Afghanistan witnessed more total casualties in the period, but nearly half the number of civilian deaths and injuries.

Both the 2018 and 2019 Monitors highlighted the prevalence of Russian and Syrian airstrikes in the country, and their devastating impact on civilian populations. In 2018, state actors were responsible for 77% of all civilian casualties, whilst in 2019 the figure was 66%. Like in 2017, data from 2018 and 2019 continued to emphasise the dominance of air-launched explosive weapons in Syria, which were responsible for the majority of civilian casualties in each year.

In 2020, AOAV recorded a further fall in the numbers of civilian casualties recorded in Syria. The figure of 3,014 civilian deaths and injuries – a 59% fall from 2019 – meant that AOAV did not cite Syria as the country worst-affected by explosive violence for the first time in five years. Despite this, Syria remained the second worst-affected country, according to AOAV, and levels of violence continue to inflict intense damage and suffering to the country and its population.

War and explosive violence, since 2011, has had a devastating impact on Syria. Over the ten-year history of AOAV’s Monitor, no other country has witnessed higher levels of explosive harm, particularly on civilian populations. From 2011 to 2020, AOAV has recorded 77,535 civilian deaths and injuries from explosive violence, but as reporting has been constantly hampered by continuing violence, it is highly likely that this figure drastically underestimates the true scale of harm. Violence also continues to drive a refugee crisis, with current estimates suggesting that 5.6 million Syrians have fled the country, whilst another 6.6 million are internally displaced. Furthermore, it is important to remember the devastating impacts explosive violence has had on the economic, environmental, health, social and cultural wellbeing of the country, which will continue to perpetuate a myriad of problems for generations to come. AOAV have explored these lasting impacts in greater detail in their report on the reverberating effects of explosive weapons use in Syria, published in 2019.