Ukraine is facing a critical moment in its war against Russia, with growing concerns about its ability to sustain the fight amid mounting military, economic, and diplomatic pressures. As The Economist reports, the country is increasingly on the defensive, struggling to fend off Russian advances while grappling with internal fatigue and wavering international support. President Volodymyr Zelensky’s recent tour of the United States aimed to shore up Western aid, but the situation remains precarious. As Ukraine braces for a harsh winter and the prospect of dwindling foreign assistance, the possibility of being forced into an unfavorable peace agreement looms large.
Since Ukraine’s celebrated recapture of Kherson in late 2022, the war has shifted into a grueling stalemate. Despite significant investments in a summer 2023 counteroffensive, Ukraine has secured only minor gains, capturing slivers of Russian-held territory but failing to decisively turn the tide. According to The Economist, the front lines have remained largely static, with Russia making more headway in the Donetsk region. In February 2024, Russian forces captured the city of Avdiivka and are now closing in on other strategic Ukrainian strongholds such as Pokrovsk and Vuhledar.
The conflict, which has now dragged on for over two and a half years, has turned into a war of attrition. Both sides are attempting to outlast the other, but Russia’s sheer firepower has started to tilt the balance in its favor. Russian artillery vastly outmatches Ukraine’s, firing as many as ten shells for every one Ukrainian shell in some parts of the front line. Russia has also capitalized on its growing drone and missile production, reportedly ramping up glide bomb production by a factor of seven since late 2022. These weapons have been crucial in Russia’s recent offensives, flattening Ukrainian defensive positions and inflicting severe damage on military and civilian infrastructure alike.
Ukraine, meanwhile, has struggled to replenish its ranks. Though Ukrainian casualties are reportedly lower than Russia’s, the toll is still significant, and Ukraine’s ability to replace lost soldiers is becoming increasingly strained. According to Ukrainian military officials, Russia has been losing six men for every Ukrainian casualty. However, this ratio, while advantageous for Ukraine, masks the deeper structural problems facing its armed forces. Ukraine’s smaller population base—currently around 33 million compared to Russia’s 143 million—makes it harder to sustain such losses. Ukraine is relying more heavily on conscription, and many of the recruits are reportedly ill-prepared for combat, with some officers complaining that draftees are too old, sick, or unfit for duty. An estimated 5-10% of Ukrainian soldiers are absent without leave, highlighting growing disillusionment within the ranks.
One of the war’s most significant challenges for Ukraine is the relentless drain on its economy. The Ukrainian government faces an estimated $38 billion deficit for 2025, with revenues projected to cover less than half of its spending needs. International grants and loans are critical to plugging this gap, but bureaucratic hurdles have slowed the process of unlocking these funds. Western allies, including the European Union and the United States, have pledged to help, but with U.S. elections looming and political divisions deepening in Europe, Ukraine’s financial future is uncertain. The war has already shrunk Ukraine’s economy by 30% since 2021, with 6.5 million people—almost one-fifth of the population—fleeing the country since the conflict began. Over 60% of Ukrainians who remain report shrinking incomes, with many struggling to cope with rising living costs and the instability wrought by the war.
The country’s infrastructure has also taken a massive hit. According to UN reports cited by The Economist, Russian missile and drone attacks on Ukraine’s power grid have crippled 80% of its coal and gas-fired power generation capacity. Although repairs have been made, the system remains vulnerable to future strikes. Power shortages are expected to worsen as winter approaches, with some regions already preparing for rolling blackouts that could last up to 12 hours. In the worst-case scenario, freezing temperatures could damage pipes, leaving entire cities without heating even after power is restored. Despite efforts to safeguard key facilities with mobile generators and fortified structures, the strain on Ukraine’s energy sector is likely to intensify as Russia ramps up its attacks.
Ukraine’s ability to produce its own arms has shown resilience, with domestic arms production reportedly tripling year-on-year. Drone manufacturing, in particular, has become a bright spot in the country’s defense strategy, with Ukrainian forces successfully using drones to strike deep into Russian territory, such as a recent attack on an arms depot in Toropets, 500 kilometers inside Russia. However, the Economist report points out that Ukraine’s domestic arms production is limited by cash shortages, with order books for military equipment often only half full due to lack of funding. Ukraine could theoretically produce over 3 million short-range attack drones per year, but has only been able to contract for 1.5 million, illustrating the gap between potential and reality.
On the diplomatic front, Ukraine is facing growing concerns about the future of Western aid. U.S. President Joe Biden remains a staunch supporter, but the upcoming U.S. elections could mark a turning point. Donald Trump, the Republican front-runner, has expressed skepticism about continued aid to Ukraine, joking recently that Zelensky is “the greatest salesman on Earth,” and criticizing Biden for not planning for the possibility of a Russian victory. If Trump returns to the presidency, Ukraine’s steady flow of military and financial support could be severely disrupted, leaving Kyiv even more vulnerable.
The Economist also highlights the growing social and political rifts within Ukraine. While public morale remains relatively high—nearly three-quarters of Ukrainians polled believe military victory is still possible—there are signs of fatigue, particularly among younger Ukrainians. Only 31% of those between 18 and 25 years old believe Ukraine is winning the war, compared to 54% of those over 60. The generational divide is also evident in views on peace: while 60% of the older generation insists Ukraine must continue fighting until all territories are liberated, only 40% of the younger generation agrees. This shift in attitudes suggests that Ukraine’s younger population, who are more likely to be drafted into military service, are increasingly willing to entertain peace negotiations, even if it means making territorial concessions to Russia.
These internal divisions, coupled with the external pressures of a prolonged conflict, are putting President Zelensky in a difficult position. Although he continues to express confidence in Ukraine’s ability to achieve total victory, the reality on the ground is much more complex. According to polling cited by The Economist, trust in Zelensky has fallen sharply, from 80% in May 2023 to just 45% in September 2024. With the Ukrainian government facing increasing scrutiny and the possibility of elections next year, the political landscape in Kyiv is becoming more fraught.
As Ukraine heads into another difficult winter, its military, economic, and diplomatic prospects remain uncertain. While Western aid has so far prevented a total collapse, the growing strain on Ukrainian society, coupled with wavering support from key allies, leaves the country vulnerable. The war may yet grind on, but as The Economist concludes, the path to peace or victory remains far from clear. For Zelensky, the stakes could not be higher.
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